Brazil cane areas to dry earlier than usual

The typically wet summer period in Brazil's main cane areas could end some weeks earlier than usual this year, in April, a condition that should favor the start of the harvest, Somar forecasters said on Wednesday.

But the dryness could hit the growth of fields, repeating a situation seen last year, when lack of moisture hurt yields and the crop turned out much smaller than expected.

"We see the weather getting drier already in mid-April, a condition resembling more the winter pattern, not in May as usual," said Somar's meteorologist Olivia Nunes, adding this is an effect of the La Nina weather anomaly, which is still in place.

Under the influence of the weather phenomenon in 2010, the center-south faced a long dry spell that started in April and lasted through early October. Usually, rains get more frequent in August in the region.

"The first half of this year could be very similar to that in 2010, with a rainy start (January-February) and then rains fading away in April," Nunes said.

The center-south accounts for 90 percent of the cane crop in Brazil, which is the world's largest sugar producer and exporter. Lower-than-expected output in 2010 helped to push up international sugar prices to 30-year highs.

The weather in the region tends to be dry in the winter (June-September) and wet in the summer (December-March). Spring and autumn are "transition periods," with rains mixed with dry spells.

"We will have the influence of the La Nina at least until the middle of the year. It is still unclear if it will persist in the second half, but we could see a delay in the arrival of rains (at year-end) once more," Nunes said.

Some mills have already started crushing cane from the 2011/12 crop, which could be lower than the previous one for the first time in 11 years, due mainly to the weather conditions in 2010.